Agile Estimations

Presenter

Anna Panicheva

  • Project Manager at E-Commerce Solution Practice
  • Agile Ambassador

Agenda

  • So, estimates…
  • Agile estimates
  • Sizing Units
  • Preparation for Estimation
  • Planning poker

So, estimates...

Why Estimate?

Why Estimate?

Why Estimate?

Agile estimates

Context

Items described from stakeholder/user perspective

Context

Context-dependent: those, who do the work, estimate the work (in their specific context)

Size

  • Size is NOT effort (this is not a WBS as an input for a project schedule)
  • Works on higher level, not on detail level
  • Velocity adjusts for over/underestimation over time

Also

Uncertainty increases with projection distance (cone of uncertainty)

Also

Intuition and wisdom of crowds (both make use of parallel processing)

Sizing Units

Hey, developer! Here is some tasks. What are your estimations?

Hmm, let me see...

Well, I think 18 hours is enough..

Ok. The clock starts ticking!

Hours is not an option

We need abstraction

  • T-Shirt sizes
  • Story Points

T-Shirt sizes

  • XXS
  • XS
  • S
  • M
  • L
  • XL

Story points

  • Fibonacci sequence including a zero

    0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89

  • "Standard" sequence

    0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100

Preparation for estimation

And Now We Just Play!

Some rules

  • Please follow instructions suggested
  • Focus on trying new technique

Poker Estimations

Prepare your cards/mobile apps

Poker Estimations

Pick / Imagine a Product Owner

Poker Estimations

Discuss the feature

Poker Estimations

PRIVATELY select one card to represent the estimate

Reveal at the same time

Poker Estimations

Other story

If smth went wrong

Poker Estimations

Continue your discussion

If no consensus achieved, defer this item

Product owner could consult on controversial features

Got It?

Go Estimate!

Estimate the relative land area of the following countries

  • Austria
  • India
  • Belarus
  • Spain
  • Belgium
  • Israel
  • Germany
  • Namibia
  • Bulgaria
  • Latvia
  • China
  • Kazakhstan
  • Canada
  • Norway
  • Switzerland
  • Australia
  • United Kingdom
  • Mexico
  • Chile
  • Cyprus

Questions

Magic Estimations

Magic Estimations

Rules

  • No talking
  • No non-verbal communication
  • Team does the estimation, product owner can only watch (and learn)

Magic Estimations

Estimation cards are put on the floor sorted ascending

0
½
1
2
3
5
8
13
20

Magic Estimations

0
½
1
2
3
5
8
13
20

The team receives user stories

Stories

Magic Estimations

Each team member

  • estimates = places stories near points cards
  • checks estimates
  • re-estimate and move if desired making marks on the story cards when moving to the left/right

Magic Estimations

Each team member one by one

0
½
1
2

Story 1

Story 2

Story 3

Story 4

Magic Estimations

Fall-outs

  • Product owner marks fall-outs (too large or keeps bouncing)
  • Discuss fall-outs until reach agreement or first blood time is over

We're done!

Links for Reference

Boris Gloger explaining Magic Estimation

Magic Estimation – rapidly estimating huge backlogs